Great post—I agree, especially on labor market effects. I think we're on track to get a system capable of automating ~99% of remote work within 5 years—but diffusion of this capability throughout the economy might well take a decade+.
Initially, it will be expensive to run, due to lack of compute. Then, there is the fact that many large corps are terminally resistant to adopting new technology that may disrupt their ways of working, and bureaucracies will find all sorts of excuses not to adopt. Fast-moving startups who can stay lean due to a high degree of automation might well displace larger slower companies with thousands of employees.
"when you only need to do 10% of the job you once did, now you can do much more with your time, focusing on the areas where human intelligence, judgment, and social capital are most valuable", i.e., the difficult, interesting work that brings a little meaning to your day will be automated while you spend even more time in meetings.
How might AI deal with moral/ethical questions such as the infinite value of each human life? Will human lives simply be one productive factor among many secular ones?
Great post—I agree, especially on labor market effects. I think we're on track to get a system capable of automating ~99% of remote work within 5 years—but diffusion of this capability throughout the economy might well take a decade+.
Initially, it will be expensive to run, due to lack of compute. Then, there is the fact that many large corps are terminally resistant to adopting new technology that may disrupt their ways of working, and bureaucracies will find all sorts of excuses not to adopt. Fast-moving startups who can stay lean due to a high degree of automation might well displace larger slower companies with thousands of employees.
"They" don't "want" anything.
"when you only need to do 10% of the job you once did, now you can do much more with your time, focusing on the areas where human intelligence, judgment, and social capital are most valuable", i.e., the difficult, interesting work that brings a little meaning to your day will be automated while you spend even more time in meetings.
Revenge of the Tin Man
How might AI deal with moral/ethical questions such as the infinite value of each human life? Will human lives simply be one productive factor among many secular ones?
The problem isn't the capacity. The problem is the use. Imagine Stalin with AI.