Great post—I agree, especially on labor market effects. I think we're on track to get a system capable of automating ~99% of remote work within 5 years—but diffusion of this capability throughout the economy might well take a decade+.
Initially, it will be expensive to run, due to lack of compute. Then, there is the fact that many large c…
Great post—I agree, especially on labor market effects. I think we're on track to get a system capable of automating ~99% of remote work within 5 years—but diffusion of this capability throughout the economy might well take a decade+.
Initially, it will be expensive to run, due to lack of compute. Then, there is the fact that many large corps are terminally resistant to adopting new technology that may disrupt their ways of working, and bureaucracies will find all sorts of excuses not to adopt. Fast-moving startups who can stay lean due to a high degree of automation might well displace larger slower companies with thousands of employees.
Great post—I agree, especially on labor market effects. I think we're on track to get a system capable of automating ~99% of remote work within 5 years—but diffusion of this capability throughout the economy might well take a decade+.
Initially, it will be expensive to run, due to lack of compute. Then, there is the fact that many large corps are terminally resistant to adopting new technology that may disrupt their ways of working, and bureaucracies will find all sorts of excuses not to adopt. Fast-moving startups who can stay lean due to a high degree of automation might well displace larger slower companies with thousands of employees.