But it seems that Japan during the Reagan years was in a very different place economically than places like Cambodia or Vietnam today. Is it likely that the manufacturers in those countries could start building US factories, even if they wanted to? And since we have just thrown their economies off a cliff, isn’t it more likely that we pu…
But it seems that Japan during the Reagan years was in a very different place economically than places like Cambodia or Vietnam today. Is it likely that the manufacturers in those countries could start building US factories, even if they wanted to? And since we have just thrown their economies off a cliff, isn’t it more likely that we push them geopolitically into the arms of China? Global trade was not just about economics but also alliance. Even believing that rebalancing trade deficits is to some extent necessary, this just seems like the most self defeating way to do so possible. Not to mention the human costs…
Following up, in 1980, US GDP per capita was just over $12.5k. Japan’s was just under $10k. Not equal, but similar. We were negotiating with an up and coming peer. In 2023, US GDP per capita was almost $83k where Vietnam’s was just over $4k and Cambodia’s was just under $2.5k. We are punching down with these poorly designed, crippling tariffs on a lot of the world that isn’t trying to take advantage of us, but is trying to rise out of poverty while providing us the goods desired to support our way of life at prices that we want to pay. As a counterpoint, in 1980, South Korea’s GDP per capita was well under $2k and has grown to over $33k in 2023, while repeatedly proving themselves to be one of our most valuable allies.
The Japanese banking industry made a run for top status in global finance circa the 80s also. Were beat down by harsh US action, which was possible because of the power disparity. The US-China relationship has much less disparity. And ofc one can't go around alienating allies if they're serious about attempting a repeat of the 80s US defense against Japan's rising economic power, but vs today's PRC.
I would think most factories in Vietnam and Cambodia if not Chinese owned outright have only one customer. A Vietnamese factory for instance that only makes Nikes and was built with Chinese investors. I know that in Laos that is the case, mostly Chinese but some Korean too.
But it seems that Japan during the Reagan years was in a very different place economically than places like Cambodia or Vietnam today. Is it likely that the manufacturers in those countries could start building US factories, even if they wanted to? And since we have just thrown their economies off a cliff, isn’t it more likely that we push them geopolitically into the arms of China? Global trade was not just about economics but also alliance. Even believing that rebalancing trade deficits is to some extent necessary, this just seems like the most self defeating way to do so possible. Not to mention the human costs…
Following up, in 1980, US GDP per capita was just over $12.5k. Japan’s was just under $10k. Not equal, but similar. We were negotiating with an up and coming peer. In 2023, US GDP per capita was almost $83k where Vietnam’s was just over $4k and Cambodia’s was just under $2.5k. We are punching down with these poorly designed, crippling tariffs on a lot of the world that isn’t trying to take advantage of us, but is trying to rise out of poverty while providing us the goods desired to support our way of life at prices that we want to pay. As a counterpoint, in 1980, South Korea’s GDP per capita was well under $2k and has grown to over $33k in 2023, while repeatedly proving themselves to be one of our most valuable allies.
The Japanese banking industry made a run for top status in global finance circa the 80s also. Were beat down by harsh US action, which was possible because of the power disparity. The US-China relationship has much less disparity. And ofc one can't go around alienating allies if they're serious about attempting a repeat of the 80s US defense against Japan's rising economic power, but vs today's PRC.
I would think most factories in Vietnam and Cambodia if not Chinese owned outright have only one customer. A Vietnamese factory for instance that only makes Nikes and was built with Chinese investors. I know that in Laos that is the case, mostly Chinese but some Korean too.